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Introduction

Raddy Velkov, Senior Vice President, Carrier Sales & Strategy

This inaugural BlueGrace Monthly Freight Market Update is designed to ground market conversations in data, not headlines. As we move through February 2026, freight demand remains structurally soft, with truckload tonnage flat to down and shipment volumes continuing to trail retail activity. At the same time, recent winter weather has reinforced how sensitive the freight network has become to disruption, making outcomes increasingly dependent on timing, execution, and network balance rather than broad demand strength.

Several signals stand out this month. Spot load activity remains elevated on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, even as week-over-week trends eased in mid-January following post-holiday normalization. Winter storms across key freight corridors temporarily tightened effective capacity, exposing how quickly networks can tip during disruption. Load-to-truck ratios remain materially tighter than both month-over-month and year-over-year levels in weather-impacted and capacity-constrained lanes. This underscores the market’s fragility and its continued sensitivity to weather and operational friction in an environment with limited slack. Contract pricing continues to hold despite muted volume, while freight spend has not declined in line with shipments, indicating rising cost per move driven by execution friction, accessorial exposure, and recovery-related spot usage. Refrigerated markets remain particularly sensitive as seasonal demand and winter conditions continue to pull capacity from adjacent van lanes

These conditions should not be mistaken for a broad market recovery, but they also should not be dismissed as noise. Weather-driven tightness is not a contradiction to the broader demand picture. It is evidence of how little margin for error exists in today’s network. In a soft demand environment, even short-lived disruption can create outsized pricing and service impacts when capacity is unevenly positioned and operational slack is limited.

The first half of this report focuses on these core freight indicators, paired with my commentary on what they signal for carrier leverage, pricing behavior, and near-term risk. The second half brings together insights from BlueGrace subject matter experts across truckload, LTL, parcel, drayage, and cross-border freight, translating market conditions into mode-specific implications for the month ahead.

What follows is a detailed breakdown of the data shaping freight conditions today. Each section highlights where risk is building, where opportunity exists, and how execution decisions can materially influence cost and service outcomes in the weeks ahead. As we progress through the first quarter, inventory behavior and restocking timing remain the most credible catalysts to watch for a meaningful shift in freight demand. We invite you to use this perspective to guide planning and carrier conversations throughout February and beyond.

Market Signals at a Glance

Demand Remains Soft

Truckload tonnage and shipment volumes continue to lag retail activity, signaling no broad-based demand recovery yet.

Disruption Drives Pricing

Spot volatility is being driven by weather, timing, and network friction, not sustained demand growth.

Capacity Is Fragile

Load-to-truck ratios remain materially tighter than both month-over-month and year-over-year levels in weather-impacted and capacity-constrained lanes.

Costs Outpacing Volume

Freight spend has not declined in line with shipments, increasing cost per move due to accessorials and execution gaps.

Carrier Pricing Discipline Holds

Contract pricing remains firm across truckload and LTL despite.

Execution Matters Most

Lane-level strategy, routing guide health, and proactive capacity planning are the primary levers for controlling cost and service risk today.

Truckload Capacity

The Data

This chart shows how many loads are competing for available trucks on the DAT marketplace, reflecting real-time spot market balance rather than contracted freight conditions. Load-to-truck ratios move quickly and are one of the earliest indicators of near-term market stress. Weather events, holidays, produce surges, and carrier downtime typically appear here before they are visible in other market indicators.

What Is Important

Rising ratios signal immediate spot volatility and reduced fallback capacity for uncovered freight. Falling ratios indicate excess capacity and increased pricing opportunity. Current ratio behavior continues to point toward disruption-driven tightening rather than a sustained demand recovery.

BlueGrace Commentary

Load-to-truck ratios have spiked at times due to weather and seasonal disruption, creating short-term pressure in specific markets. This matters because these swings are where execution and response speed separate outcomes. When ratios rise, capacity tightens quickly in exposed lanes, even if the broader market remains balanced. Shippers that actively monitor these signals and adjust coverage strategies in real time, rather than relying on static plans, are better able to protect service and cost during periods of disruption.

Truckload Spot Pricing

The Data

This reflects the average spot price carriers accept for marginal freight. Spot rates show real-time carrier behavior, making direction more important than the absolute number. Sustained increases signal rising leverage or costs, while brief spikes typically reflect disruption premiums.

What Is Important

Rising spot rates increase cost exposure for uncovered or overflow freight and reduce the effectiveness of backup carrier options. Conversely, flat or declining spot rates support stronger routing guide compliance and create opportunities for spot market optimization, allowing shippers to manage volatility and control costs more effectively.

BlueGrace Commentary

National van spot rates moved higher into late December and early January, reflecting disruption and operational friction more than a true demand recovery. Spot rates show how carriers are behaving in the moment, especially when networks are stressed. This matters because elevated spot conditions often concentrate in specific lanes and time windows. Shippers that take a dynamic approach, leaning on market visibility and flexible capacity options, are better positioned to manage short-term exposure without losing momentum across the rest of their network.

Reefer Spot Pricing

The Data

This chart tracks refrigerated spot pricing, which is heavily influenced by seasonal demand patterns, produce harvest cycles, and weather-related disruptions. Periods of reefer tightness often pull flexible capacity away from the dry van market, particularly when carriers reposition equipment to higher-yield refrigerated lanes. This dynamic is frequently where localized tightening escalates into broader network stress across multiple modes.

What Is Important

Rising reefer rates increase pricing volatility not only within refrigerated lanes but also across adjacent dry van markets. Shippers that tender loads earlier, maintain flexible pickup and delivery windows, and proactively plan around seasonal ramps are better positioned to limit exposure as reefer demand intensifies.

BlueGrace Commentary

Reefer rates tightened aggressively during the late-year seasonal window due to seasonality and weather, reinforcing how quickly capacity can shift between equipment types. This matters because reefer volatility often creates spillover pressure in nearby van markets, even for shippers not directly moving temperature-controlled freight. Shippers that anticipate these seasonal shifts and partner on proactive coverage strategies are able to stay ahead of the curve rather than reacting once capacity tightens.

Contract Pricing

The Data

This chart reflects baseline linehaul pricing derived from actual shipper invoices, with fuel and accessorial charges excluded. The index provides a clear view of where contract pricing is ultimately settling across the market. Because contract rates adjust more slowly than spot pricing, this measure serves as confirmation of whether carriers are successfully pushing higher pricing into long-term agreements rather than relying on short-term market volatility.

What Is Important

When this index continues to rise despite weak or declining freight volumes, it indicates that carriers are protecting yield and maintaining pricing discipline. Conversely, when the index flattens or begins to decline, negotiating leverage shifts back toward shippers, creating opportunities for more favorable outcomes in bids, renewals, and contract restructures.

BlueGrace Commentary

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index has edged higher despite weaker volumes, signaling carriers are holding the pricing floor where network friction exists. This matters because it highlights the growing importance of lane-level pricing strategies over blanket market assumptions. Shippers that approach pricing with a nuanced view, balancing stability in core lanes with flexibility in volatile ones, are better positioned to align cost and service as conditions evolve.

Freight Spend Versus Volume

The Data

Shipment counts track overall freight volume, while expenditures reflect total transportation spend. When shipment volumes decline but spending remains elevated, the result is a rising cost per shipment. This dynamic typically signals rate firmness driven by capacity friction, network inefficiencies, or operational disruption rather than true demand growth.

What Is Important

This divergence is one of the clearest indicators of disruption-driven premiums and cost leakage risk. It underscores the importance of disciplined execution, carrier compliance, and routing guide health, especially in soft demand environments where inefficiencies can quickly outweigh volume-driven cost relief.

BlueGrace Commentary

Freight spending has not fallen as fast as shipment volumes, which tells us cost per shipment is rising due to inefficiencies, disruption, and tighter execution windows. This matters because cost leakage often hides in accessorials, missed tenders, and unplanned spot moves rather than base rates alone. Shippers that focus on execution discipline and work with partners who actively manage these pressure points can materially improve cost outcomes even in a soft demand environment.

Fuel Costs

The Data

This chart reflects the national average diesel price paid by carriers. While fuel costs do not directly drive freight demand, they materially influence carrier cost structures and margin tolerance. Sustained increases in diesel prices compress margins and increase rate resistance, even in otherwise soft market conditions.

What Is Important

Fuel volatility heightens carrier sensitivity to short-haul moves, deadhead miles, and operationally inefficient lanes across networks. As fuel costs rise, acceptance behavior becomes more selective, tightening effective capacity and increasing spot market volatility, particularly in imbalanced or low-density lanes.

BlueGrace Commentary

Diesel fell through late December and early January, then ticked up the week of January 19. Down from November highs, mixed week to week in January. That matters because pricing conversations today are increasingly less about fuel inflation and more about network balance, timing, and service reliability. Shippers that ground pricing decisions in current cost realities and focus on operational alignment are better equipped to navigate rate discussions in a way that supports both continuity and performance.

Inventory

The Data

Retail sales trends relative to freight shipment trends provide early insight into inventory behavior. When retail spending outpaces freight shipments, inventories are being drawn down, setting the stage for restocking activity. Restocking represents the first meaningful demand catalyst for transportation markets.

What Is Important

If restocking begins while transportation capacity remains constrained or unevenly positioned, rates can move quickly and with little warning. This dynamic represents the key inflection risk, where pricing volatility accelerates before capacity has time to respond.

BlueGrace Commentary

Retail spending continues to outpace freight shipment volumes across several retail segments, which tells us inventories have been drawing down rather than being replenished. That matters because restocking is the first real catalyst that can shift this market from fragile to meaningfully tighter, especially after a period of underinvestment in equipment and capacity. When restocking begins, it tends to show up quickly and unevenly across networks. Shippers that stay close to inventory signals and work with partners who can anticipate and position capacity ahead of those inflection points are better equipped to manage the transition without getting caught chasing capacity after the fact.

Mode Details & Commentary

Refrigerated Freight Overview

Truckload markets showed signs of seasonal tightening in December, with modest volume gains in van and refrigerated freight paired with a sharp rise in spot rates. Reefer demand posted the strongest month-over-month growth, while weather disruptions, holiday ecommerce pressure, and constrained capacity pushed both van and refrigerated spot pricing to the highest monthly averages of the year. Contract rates remained largely flat, narrowing the gap between spot and contract pricing and highlighting increased urgency among shippers to secure reliable truckload and temperature-controlled capacity heading into early 2026.

Q1 capacity risks are elevated as a La Niña winter threatens equipment positioning and availability. Colder temperatures increase the need for Protect From Freezing service while heavier precipitation raises the risk of equipment dislocation in northern markets. Shippers should plan for tighter capacity, longer repositioning times, and expanded reefer use on freeze-sensitive lanes where freeze risk is elevated.

BlueGrace Commentary

The refrigerated transportation market is showing early signs of a shift toward tighter capacity conditions as the industry moves into 2026. While recent spot rate increases were initially driven by winter weather disruptions and holiday demand, pricing has remained elevated despite softening volumes in select regions and lanes. December reefer costs increased approximately 9% year over year, a trend that warrants planning as seasonal demand builds toward the summer months. Regionally, upward rate pressure is expected to persist in Texas, Florida, Arizona, and Northeast markets heading into Q1.

Drayage Overview

Drayage conditions heading into next quarter remain stable but operationally sensitive. Import volumes have normalized from peak season highs, with major ports operating near 85–90% of pre-peak throughput levels. Average container dwell times have improved but still range from 3–5 days at West Coast ports and 4–6 days at select East and Gulf Coast gateways, particularly following weather events. Chassis availability has stabilized overall, though imbalances persist in rail-linked and transload-heavy markets where turn times remain inconsistent.

Cost pressure in drayage continues despite softer freight demand. Fuel, chassis rental, port accessorials, and detention remain the primary cost drivers, with effective drayage rates running approximately 5–8% higher year over year in several major gateways. While capacity is generally available, carriers are increasingly selective around dwell risk and appointment reliability, leading to rate variability and tighter service windows in congested or weather-impacted markets.

BlueGrace Commentary

February drayage conditions will be driven more by execution discipline than demand pressure as post-peak volumes remain normalized. Primary risks continue to center on weather-related disruption, chassis positioning, and appointment reliability, particularly in rail-served and transload-heavy markets, with added sensitivity in Southern California as regulatory pressures tighten the available drayage driver pool. Along the Gulf Coast and in Savannah, export demand and container availability remain key constraints, reinforcing the need for proactive container visibility, disciplined free-time management, and consistent carrier communication to control costs and avoid service delays during an otherwise quieter but operationally sensitive month.

Truckload Freight Overview

The truckload market over the past eight weeks has followed a familiar seasonal pattern, amplified by operational disruption. Pre-holiday shipping ahead of Thanksgiving created short-lived tightness, followed by softer demand in early December before volumes rebounded during the Christmas and year-end push. Spot load activity has cooled week over week as networks normalize, but month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons remain elevated, confirming that overall freight activity is still stronger than prior periods despite recent easing.

Early January normalization was interrupted by widespread winter weather across much of the U.S. east of the Rockies, temporarily reducing effective capacity and driving shippers back to the spot market. While load-to-truck ratios have eased sharply week over week across van, reefer, and flatbed equipment, all modes remain tighter relative to both last month and last year. Spot rates have softened modestly in the near term but continue to trend higher on a monthly basis, supported in part by short-term fuel price increases and ongoing recovery-related demand.

BlueGrace Commentary

The truckload market remains disruption-driven, with easing weekly metrics but elevated volatility versus historical norms. Weekly easing in spot metrics reflects short-term normalization, but elevated month-over-month and year-over-year indicators signal that underlying capacity remains fragile. Shippers should plan for continued volatility, particularly around weather and recovery events, by maintaining flexible routing guides, protecting carrier relationships, and preparing for rapid spot exposure when operational disruptions tighten effective capacity.

Less Than Truckload Freight Overview

LTL carriers continue to demonstrate strong pricing discipline despite a market often described as soft, prioritizing yield and capacity management over volume growth. Rates per pound reached record levels in Q4 2025, nearly 68 percent above the 2018 baseline, with only a modest seasonal dip expected in early 2026. Ongoing cost pressures tied to labor, insurance, and capital investment remain key drivers behind sustained pricing strategies.

Entering 2026, carriers are operating with an estimated 10 to 30 percent excess capacity, by most industry estimates, allowing short-term volume fluctuations to be absorbed without widespread service disruption. General Rate Increases remain firm across the sector, with most carriers holding between 4.9 and 5.9 percent, while negotiated contract increases are typically landing between 3 and 5 percent. Recent market pressures have also contributed to notable carrier exits, including the closure of Standard Forwarding and Frontline Freight’s Chapter 11 filing, reinforcing carrier focus on yield and network stability. Accessorial fees and minimum charges continue to rise alongside base rates, often pushing effective costs above published GRIs.

BlueGrace Commentary

Sustained carrier pricing power combined with available capacity reinforces the need for a disciplined, data-driven LTL strategy. Carrier exits and ongoing consolidation are reducing long-term optionality, even as short-term capacity appears ample, making carrier selection and diversification increasingly important. Shippers that actively optimize shipment profiles, leverage consolidation and mode conversion opportunities, and use visibility and planning tools to manage accessorial exposure will be better positioned to control total landed costs while maintaining service reliability as carrier networks continue to rationalize through 2026.

Parcel Overview

Recent parcel headlines around Amazon and USPS point less to an imminent breakup and more to a shifting balance of contract leverage. Amazon continues to expand its internal delivery network while reassessing external partnerships, and USPS remains a critical component of residential coverage. For shippers, 2026 should be viewed as a renegotiation year rather than a disruption event, with contingency planning across regional carriers and economy products essential to reduce exposure to sudden service changes.

Carrier networks are also being reshaped intentionally around margin, not volume. UPS workforce reductions and facility closures reflect a strategic pullback from lower-margin freight, particularly Amazon-linked volume, while Ground Saver adjustments reintroduce USPS into last-mile delivery for select shipments. These changes affect service behavior, coverage, and exception handling, requiring shippers to revisit delivery promises, tracking expectations, and claims workflows to avoid downstream customer service issues.

At the same time, pricing pressure continues to build beyond published rate increases. While 2026 GRIs average roughly 5.9 percent, actual costs are rising faster due to fuel surcharges, expanded accessorials, and stricter cubic volume and dimensional thresholds. Lightweight but bulky shipments are increasingly exposed to added handling and oversize fees, making packaging efficiency and dimensional discipline one of the most impactful cost control levers for parcel networks this year.

BlueGrace Commentary

Base rate increases are only part of the parcel cost story in 2026. Surcharges, cubic volume rules, and fuel are now the primary drivers of spend growth, causing additional handling and oversize fees to appear more frequently, even for shippers that have not historically triggered them. Effective parcel cost management requires shifting negotiations away from rate cards and toward total invoice outcomes, with a focused emphasis on carton size, dimensional efficiency, packaging strategy, multi-carrier leverage, and adapting to evolving last-mile service models as carrier pricing power remains strong.

Cross Border Overview

The U.S. – Mexico cross-border logistics segment remains structurally strong, supported by near-shoring, diversified manufacturing growth, and sustained truckload dependency. Overall freight volumes are holding at elevated levels compared to pre-pandemic baselines, but growth is uneven by sector and corridor.

Automotive volumes have softened relative to peak years, while machinery, electronics, industrial goods and consumer products continue to drive steady flows. Key crossing ports, particularly Laredo, TX., remain highly concentrated, increasing exposure to congestion and disruption risk.

Simultaneously, the market is operating under tight capacity and higher execution complexity. Driver shortages on both sides of the border, infrastructure constraints and recurring inspection delays continue to pressure service reliability. Stricter enforcement of customs, documentation and digital compliance requirements in Mexico, along with political uncertainty around future USMCA reviews, have increased the level of variability.

BlueGrace Commentary

Today’s cross-border environment rewards operational discipline over transactional structures. Network designs, service commitments and alignment between commercial and operational teams are critical to having successful programs. Shippers that rely solely on rate-driven strategies face higher exposure to disruption, accessorial costs and service failures. However, those that invest in partnerships, visibility, compliance readiness and flexible planning are better positioned to absorb market fluctuations and use cross-border capabilities as a competitive advantage and not only as an assignment.

*This information is for general informational purposes only. BlueGrace Logistics makes no representation or warranty, express or implied. Your use of this information is solely at your own risk. This information may contain links to third party content, which we do not warrant, endorse, or assume liability for.